Selling A Punggol 4-Room At S$680,000 To Buy In District 19 — The Sums Still Leave A S$38,295 Shortfall

This is an illustrative example on the quarter's median prices and a stated household, not a real family and not advice on whether to sell, buy, keep or rent out. It lays out the figures the position engine computes for each side of the question; the decision is the reader's.

A flat bought in 2020 and sold in 2026 can show a large gain on paper. Whether that gain covers the next purchase is a separate question. Our position engine answers it with figures rather than opinion. It takes a stated household, a stated purchase quarter, and the recorded medians on each side. Then it lays the question out three ways: what selling nets, what buying and holding costs, and what renting the flat out earns. Here is what stood out to us. The flat's median is up 46.4% since 2Q2020. The condo still asks for more cash upfront than the sale hands over. Both things are true at once.

According to data.gov.sg HDB resale records, the median 4-room resale price in Punggol was S$464,444 in 2Q2020, across 108 sales. In 2Q2026 it was S$680,000, across 199 sales. On the private side, URA Data Service caveats put the median for a 60 to 99 sqm unit in District 19 at S$1,488,000 in 2Q2026. That median sits on 70 sales, at a median 947 sqft. The illustrative household bought in 2Q2020 with a 75% HDB loan. Six years on, the condo asks S$416,120 before the loan is drawn. The engine shows a shortfall of S$38,295 against the sale. The monthly instalment moves from about S$1,580 to about S$5,030.

The flat's median has moved 46.4% since 2Q2020, but the loan and the selling costs take a slice first

Start with what the flat does on its own. The purchase was at 2Q2020's median of S$464,444. The HDB loan at 75% was S$348,333. The sale is at 2Q2026's median of S$680,000. The change between the two medians is S$215,556, or 46.4%. Neither figure is a valuation of any one flat. They are medians of recorded resale transactions. The mix behind them shifts from quarter to quarter. The 2Q2026 median rests on 199 sales. The 2Q2020 median rests on 108. A flat with a different lease balance, storey or block would land elsewhere in the distribution. The engine uses the medians because they are what the records support.

The rest of the first table is the deduction side. After six years of payments, the loan balance is about S$284,081. Agent and legal costs come to about S$18,094. Seller's stamp duty is S$0 at six years held. What is left is about S$377,825. That is the number the next two sides of the exercise lean on. It is worth saying what the table does not carry. Renovation spend over the six years is not in it. CPF refunds with accrued interest are not shown as a separate line either. The figure is a cash position at the point of sale, measured on medians, and nothing wider than that.

The table below sets out the flat side in full.

The condo asks S$416,120 before the loan, and the order of the two transactions changes the bill

Now the other side. The District 19 median for a 60 to 99 sqm unit is S$1,488,000, from 70 sales at a median 947 sqft. Buyer's stamp duty on that price is S$44,120. The maximum loan is S$1,116,000 at 75% LTV. The engine notes that the 75% limit is what caps the loan here, rather than the income test. That leaves S$74,400 in minimum cash and S$297,600 in CPF or cash. Add the stamp duty and the figure needed before the loan is S$416,120. Against net proceeds of about S$377,825, the table shows a shortfall of S$38,295. In percentage terms it is a small part of the purchase. In cash terms it has to come from somewhere other than the sale.

Sequence matters in the same table. If the condo is bought after the flat is sold, ABSD is S$0. If it is bought first, ABSD applies at 20%, or S$297,600, under the rules as recorded. Remissions are not modelled in this run. The engine's rates are versioned data, checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 2026-09-18. The newest version applied here took effect on 2025-07-04. Rules change, and a run dated later could read differently. The second table below shows the condo side as the engine computes it.

The monthly instalment moves from about S$1,580 to about S$5,030, a difference of S$3,450

Upfront cash is one half of the question. The monthly line is the other. On the flat, the instalment is about S$1,580. On the condo, at 3% over 27 years, it is about S$5,030. The engine puts the difference at S$3,450 a month. The second row of the table runs the same two loans at the 4% test rate. The flat line goes to S$1,781. The condo line goes to S$5,638. The test rate is a check applied to the loan, not a reading of where rates go next. Both rows assume the maximum loan of S$1,116,000 and a 27-year tenure, which follows from the stated age.

One point about what the table covers. It is the instalment only. Condo maintenance charges, property tax on an owner-occupied basis and insurance sit outside these two rows. The flat's instalment also runs on the original 25-year tenure at 2.6%. So the two columns are not a like-for-like loan, and the engine does not pretend otherwise. They are the two payments the household would actually face in each case. The table below sets them side by side.

Renting the flat out shows an estimated S$3,400 a month and a net carry of S$27,414 a year

The third side keeps the flat. Rental approvals on data.gov.sg give an estimated rent of S$3,400 a month for this flat type and town. That estimate comes from 10 recorded approvals, which is a thin base. A handful of approvals at the top or bottom of the range would move it. The engine computes a gross yield of 6.0% on that rent. Then it takes the deductions off. Property tax at non-owner-occupied rates is S$1,714 a year. Maintenance is S$900 a year. Net rent after vacancy, tax and maintenance is S$34,800 a year. Interest on the remaining loan is S$7,386 a year.

What is left is a net carry of S$27,414 a year, or 4.0%. That is a measured figure, not a projection. It uses recorded rents, the recorded loan balance and the configured cost norms. It also assumes the flat stays let, net of the vacancy allowance already in the line. One thing this side does not do is sit alongside the condo purchase. Keeping the flat and buying private are different positions under the rules as recorded. The table below shows the rental side as the engine computes it.

Holding the condo for five years costs S$268,045 in all, and S$156,992 of that is interest

The engine also runs the condo forward five years on its own. The total cost of holding comes to S$268,045. Interest accounts for S$156,992 of it. The rest is stamp duty, maintenance, property tax and the selling costs at the end. The exit assumes a sale at today's indicative mid value after five years. It charges 2% commission and S$3,000 in legal fees, plus 9% GST. Interest comes from a standard amortisation schedule at 3% on the S$1,116,000 loan. Property tax runs on an assumed annual value of S$44,115. Against that stack of costs, the engine computes a break-even growth of 18.4%.

That 18.4% is a measurement, not a view. It is the price move over five years that would cover the holding costs, on the same indicative mid value the engine uses throughout. It says nothing about whether District 19 medians move that much. Recorded caveats only tell you where prices have been. The figure is useful because it puts the holding cost in the same unit as the price. A number in dollars and a number in percent are easier to hold next to each other.

Several things stay open here. The rent estimate rests on 10 approvals, and more approvals would tighten it. The District 19 median rests on 70 sales in one quarter, with a median 947 sqft, so the mix can shift the figure. The same is true of the 199 Punggol resale sales behind the S$680,000 median. Next quarter's records will update all three, and the rules version can change with them. The ABSD line, in particular, turns entirely on the order of the two transactions. Nothing above settles which of the three sides a household picks. The engine's job is to put the figures for each on the same page.

We keep coming back to the same thing when we run these. A single headline figure, like a 46.4% move over six years, rarely answers the question on its own. It has to be read against the loan balance, the stamp duty, the monthly line and the cost of holding. Put those together and the picture is more ordinary than the headline sounds. That is the part worth sitting with.

Method: the flat is a 4-room in the town, bought at the median of Q2 2020 with a 75% HDB loan at 2.6% over 25 years, of which 6 years have been paid. Its value today is Q2 2026's median. Selling costs, seller's stamp duty, equity, the rent estimate and the carry are the position engine's under the rules recorded as in force. The condo is a 60 to 99 sqm resale in the nearest district with enough sales within 2.5 km of the town. It is taken at Q2 2026's median. The buyer is a citizen aged 38 with a household income of S$15,000 a month and no other debt. sale at today's indicative mid value after 5 years. Seller pays 2% commission and S$3,000 legal fees, plus 9% GST. Mortgage interest from a standard amortisation schedule at the given rate. Loan of S$1,116,000 (75% of the price), the maximum available. Property tax on an assumed annual value of S$44,115 (85% of market rent). Maintenance at the configured norm. Rates are versioned data in config/rules.yaml, checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 2026-09-18. The newest version applied here took effect 2025-07-04. Rules change with each cooling-measure round. Private figures are from URA Data Service caveats, HDB figures from data.gov.sg resale records, both loaded weekly by this site's ingest. Medians are of the non-excluded transactions in the period named. Sales flagged by the hygiene rules (related-party transfers, bulk deals, outliers) are left out. Every figure is indicative and drawn from recorded transactions, not a formal valuation.