Mandarin Gardens Recorded 38 Resales At A Median Of S$1,314 psf — Yet It Sits 31.2% Below Its Own District

A large, well-traded project can still sit far below the district it belongs to. Mandarin Gardens is one of those cases, and the gap is wide enough to be worth walking through slowly.

According to URA Data Service caveats, the 99-year leasehold project in District 15 recorded 38 resales over 3Q2025 to 2Q2026 at a median of S$1,314 psf. Over the same four quarters, District 15 recorded 1,174 resales at a median of S$1,911 psf. That puts Mandarin Gardens 31.2% below the district median. The project has 55 years of lease left. Here is what stood out to us across the quarterly series, the size bands, the rents and the neighbours.

The quarterly median has moved very little over eight quarters, but it has not moved smoothly

Across the eight quarters shown, the quarterly resale median moved 2.4%. It started at S$1,201 psf in 3Q2024 on 7 sales and ended at S$1,230 psf in 2Q2026 on 13 sales. That is close to flat over two years.

The path in between is far choppier. The series peaked at S$1,403 psf in 1Q2026 on 10 sales. One quarter later it printed S$1,230 psf on 13 sales. The quarterly counts here run from 5 to 13. At those volumes, a handful of larger or lower-floor units can move the median on their own.

The percentile columns help with that. In 2Q2026 the 25th and 75th percentiles sat at S$1,211 psf and S$1,285 psf. In 4Q2024 the same pair sat at S$1,301 psf and S$1,488 psf. The spread was much wider then. That points to a mix of unit types rather than a single price level for the whole project.

The table and chart below show the quarter-by-quarter series.

The biggest units are the most traded, and they clear at the lowest psf in the project

Units of 120 sqm and above accounted for 22 of the 38 resales in the window. Their median price was S$2,170,000, at a median area of 1,572 sqft. That works out to S$1,277 psf on the engine's numbers.

The smaller bands print higher on a per-area basis. The 90 to 119 sqm band recorded 6 resales at a median of S$1,410,000, or S$1,409 psf. The 50 to 69 sqm band recorded 8 resales at a median of S$965,000, or S$1,318 psf. The 70 to 89 sqm band had just 2 resales, so we would not read much into its S$1,357 psf.

This is the usual shape in older large-format projects. Bigger absolute quantum, lower psf. It also explains part of the quarterly swing above. A quarter heavy in large units will read lower on psf, even if nothing about pricing has changed.

The size breakdown is below.

Rents stayed in a narrow band while the median monthly rent jumped around

URA rental contracts at Mandarin Gardens show steady leasing volume. There were 54 contracts in 3Q2025, 46 in 4Q2025, 58 in 1Q2026 and 42 in 2Q2026. The median psf a month drifted from 3.9 in 3Q2025 to 3.7 in 2Q2026.

The median monthly rent is less settled. It was S$4,650 in 3Q2025, then S$4,000 in 4Q2025, then S$5,240 in 1Q2026, then S$5,050 in 2Q2026. The per-area figure barely moved across those same quarters. That gap suggests the size mix of leased units changed from quarter to quarter.

Against the resale median, the 2Q2026 rental median of S$3.69 psf a month works out to a gross yield of about 3.4% on our engine's calculation. That is a measured figure from recorded contracts and recorded resales. It is not a valuation of any home in the project.

The rental series is below.

Within one kilometre, the spread between projects is wider than the district gap

Eight projects within 1 km recorded resales over 3Q2025 to 2Q2026. Seaside Residences, 177 m away, recorded 33 resales at a median of S$2,327 psf. Frankel Estate, at 793 m, recorded 27 at S$2,226 psf.

At the other end of the table sit the older leasehold estates. Neptune Court recorded 22 resales at S$1,101 psf. Laguna Park recorded 12 at S$1,167 psf. Villa Marina recorded 8 at S$1,340 psf. Mandarin Gardens, at S$1,314 psf, sits in that lower cluster rather than near the newer or freehold projects.

So the district median of S$1,911 psf is not really a single market. It averages across tenure, age and build. The neighbour table makes that clearer than the district comparison does. The freehold names here, Siglap V at S$1,534 psf and Fernwood Towers at S$1,710 psf, sit between the two groups.

The nearby projects are listed below.

The largest sale in the window was also one of the lowest psf prints

The highest resale price over the four quarters was S$3,650,000 in 1Q2026. The unit was 3,068 sqft on the 21-25 storey range, at S$1,190 psf. That is below the project's own four-quarter median.

Two other sales in the top five tell a different story. A 1,572 sqft unit on the 21-25 storey range transacted at S$2,290,000 in 1Q2026, at S$1,457 psf. A near-identical unit went for S$2,288,000 in 3Q2025, at S$1,456 psf. Same size band, same storey range, almost the same rate, two quarters apart.

That consistency is useful. It shows the swings in the headline median come largely from which units transacted, not from a wholesale repricing. We would still keep the counts in mind. Five sales is a short list.

The top sales are below.

Our own estimate at this project missed by a median of 5.8% when tested against later sales

We backtest our estimates against transactions recorded after the estimate was made. At Mandarin Gardens, as of 4Q2025, the test covered 31 later sales. The median error was 5.8%. Around 35% of those sales landed inside the stated range.

That is worth saying plainly. A project with wide unit sizes and a long price spread is harder to model than a uniform one. The percentile gaps in the quarterly table show why. An estimate built on project-level medians will sit some distance from any single transaction.

Every figure in this piece comes from recorded transactions, whether caveats or rental approvals. None of them is a formal valuation.

A few things the data does not settle. We do not know the mix of units coming to market next quarter. The 2Q2026 median of S$1,230 psf came on 13 sales, the highest count in the eight-quarter series. Whether that volume holds is the first thing to check in the next pull. The rental side is worth watching too. Contracts fell from 58 in 1Q2026 to 42 in 2Q2026, while the median psf a month held near 3.7. Those two series moving apart would change the measured yield.

One quarter at one project is a thin reading. The numbers here only start to mean something when you set them next to the eight-quarter line, the size bands and the neighbours within a kilometre. Read together, they describe a large leasehold project trading at its own level, some way from the district figure it gets averaged into. That context is the part worth keeping.

Method: URA resale caveats at the project (developer sales and sub-sales excluded) by the quarter of the sale month. Size bands by caveated floor area. Rents are URA rental contracts at the project, and the gross yield is the mean of the quarterly median rents per square foot, annualised, over the four-quarter resale median per square foot, before any cost. Lease left is the tenure less the years since the lease started, as recorded. The estimate accuracy is this site's backtest: the engine run as of the quarter named, compared with the sales since. Private figures are from URA Data Service caveats, HDB figures from data.gov.sg resale records, both loaded weekly by this site's ingest. Medians are of the non-excluded transactions in the period named. Sales flagged by the hygiene rules (related-party transfers, bulk deals, outliers) are left out. Every figure is indicative and drawn from recorded transactions, not a formal valuation.