A Sembawang 4-Room Up 70.2% Since 2Q2020 — But The District 27 Condo Still Leaves S$29,151 To Find

This is an illustrative example on the quarter's median prices and a stated household, not a real family and not advice on whether to sell, buy, keep or rent out. It lays out the figures the position engine computes for each side of the question; the decision is the reader's.

The flat-to-condo move is usually talked about as one decision. The figures split it into three. There is what the flat sells for, what the condo costs to buy and hold, and what the flat earns if it stays. Each side has its own numbers, and they do not all point the same way.

According to data.gov.sg HDB resale records, a 4-room flat in Sembawang had a median price of S$354,000 in 2Q2020, from 24 sales. In 2Q2026 the median is S$602,500, from 74 sales. On the private side, URA Data Service caveats put the median for a 60 to 99 sqm unit in District 27 at S$1,428,000 in 2Q2026, from 35 sales. The household in this example bought in 2Q2020 with a 75% HDB loan. Everything below runs off those medians.

The flat's median is up 70.2% since 2Q2020, and the loan is most of the way down

Start with the flat on its own. The purchase was at the 2Q2020 median of S$354,000. The HDB loan at 75% came to S$265,500. Six years on, the 2Q2026 median for a Sembawang 4-room is S$602,500. That is a change of S$248,500, or 70.2%. A median is not a valuation of any one flat. It is the middle of recorded transactions for that town, flat type and quarter. Storey, lease and block all sit inside that spread. The 2Q2020 figure rests on 24 sales, which is a thin base for a quarter.

The sale side then nets out. The loan balance after six years is about S$216,527. Agent and legal costs come to about S$16,404. Seller's stamp duty is S$0 at six years held. What is left is about S$369,569. That figure is indicative. It is built from medians and a standard amortisation schedule, not from an offer on a particular unit. The stamp duty rules used here are versioned data, and the SSD version applied took effect on 2025-07-04.

The table below sets out both ends of the hold.

What the condo asks for before the loan is larger than what the flat nets

The condo side is a median too. The 35 caveats behind it have a median size of 969 sqft. Buyer's stamp duty on S$1,428,000 is S$41,720. The maximum loan is S$1,071,000, at 75% LTV, and LTV is the binding limit in this case rather than TDSR. Minimum cash is S$71,400. CPF or cash covers S$285,600. Thirty-five caveats is a quarter's worth of sales across a whole district and a wide size band. Mix inside that band is not something the median can separate out.

Add the pieces that sit outside the loan and the figure is S$398,720. The sale nets S$369,569. The engine shows the difference as a negative line: S$-29,151. That is a shortfall to find elsewhere. Where it comes from is not modelled here.

Order matters in the table as well. Buying the condo before the flat is sold brings additional buyer's stamp duty at 20%. Under the rules as recorded, that is S$285,600. Remissions are not modelled. If the flat is sold first, the ABSD line reads S$0.

The monthly instalment is where the two sides separate most

The month-by-month table is short, and it is the one most people look at first. On the flat, the instalment is about S$1,204. On the condo, at 3% over 27 years, it is about S$4,827. The difference is S$3,623 a month. The condo figure assumes the full S$1,071,000 loan and that tenure. A shorter tenure or a smaller loan would not produce these numbers.

The second row is a test rate, not a prediction of where rates go. At 4%, the condo instalment is S$5,411 and the flat instalment is S$1,357. It is a stress check on the same loan, nothing more. What the table does not carry is the rest of the monthly picture. Maintenance on a condo, property tax at owner-occupier rates and conservancy charges on the flat all sit outside these two rows.

Renting the flat out is the third side, and it rests on 21 approvals

The third side keeps the flat. Rental approvals recorded on data.gov.sg put the estimated rent at S$3,450 a month, from 21 approvals in the period. That is a gross yield of 6.9% against the current median. Twenty-one approvals is a small base. Rents vary by storey, condition and furnishing, and an approval records the lease, not the unit's fittings.

The costs then come off. Property tax at non-owner-occupied rates is S$1,739 a year. Maintenance is S$900 a year. After vacancy, tax and maintenance, net rent is S$35,325 a year. Interest on the remaining loan is S$5,630 a year. Net carry is S$29,695 a year, or 4.9%. The property tax line uses an assumed annual value of S$35,700, set at 85% of market rent. This side and the purchase side are modelled separately. The engine does not blend them.

Holding the condo for five years carries S$150,662 of interest

The last figure is about time rather than the entry. Holding the condo for five years costs S$256,392 in all. Of that, S$150,662 is interest. The rest covers the other holding items in the model. On those costs, the price would need to rise 18.4% over the five years to cover them. That is a break-even measure, not a view on prices.

The assumptions behind it are stated. The exit is at today's indicative mid value after five years. The seller pays 2% commission and S$3,000 in legal fees, plus 9% GST. Interest comes from a standard amortisation schedule at the given rate, on the full S$1,071,000 loan. Change the rate, the tenure or the loan size and the interest line changes with it.

Plenty stays open here. The 2Q2026 flat median rests on 74 sales and the condo median on 35 caveats, both single quarters. The rent estimate comes from 21 approvals. Those counts can shift a median on their own. The tax and loan rules are versioned data, checked against IRAS and MAS publications, and they change with each round of measures. The next quarter's HDB resale records and URA caveats will show whether the Sembawang 4-room median and the District 27 band move together or apart. The instalment rows move with rates, not with medians.

One headline figure rarely settles a question like this. The 70.2% gain reads one way on its own, and another once the loan balance, the stamp duty and the monthly rows sit beside it. The same goes for a 6.9% gross yield. What the three sides are useful for is seeing which number each side is sensitive to. The rest is the reader's to weigh.

Method: the flat is a 4-room in the town, bought at the median of Q2 2020 with a 75% HDB loan at 2.6% over 25 years, of which 6 years have been paid. Its value today is Q2 2026's median. Selling costs, seller's stamp duty, equity, the rent estimate and the carry are the position engine's under the rules recorded as in force. The condo is a 60 to 99 sqm resale in the nearest district with enough sales within 2.5 km of the town. It is taken at Q2 2026's median. The buyer is a citizen aged 38 with a household income of S$15,000 a month and no other debt. sale at today's indicative mid value after 5 years. Seller pays 2% commission and S$3,000 legal fees, plus 9% GST. Mortgage interest from a standard amortisation schedule at the given rate. Loan of S$1,071,000 (75% of the price), the maximum available. Property tax on an assumed annual value of S$35,700 (85% of market rent). Maintenance at the configured norm. Rates are versioned data in config/rules.yaml, checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 2026-09-18. The newest version applied here took effect 2025-07-04. Rules change with each cooling-measure round. Private figures are from URA Data Service caveats, HDB figures from data.gov.sg resale records, both loaded weekly by this site's ingest. Medians are of the non-excluded transactions in the period named. Sales flagged by the hygiene rules (related-party transfers, bulk deals, outliers) are left out. Every figure is indicative and drawn from recorded transactions, not a formal valuation.