Selling A Jurong West 4-Room At S$530,000 To Buy In District 22 — The Sums Leave A S$101,199 Shortfall

This is an illustrative example on the quarter's median prices and a stated household, not a real family and not advice on whether to sell, buy, keep or rent out. It lays out the figures the position engine computes for each side of the question; the decision is the reader's.

An HDB-to-private move reads like one decision. On the figures, it is three separate sets of sums, and they do not line up neatly. There is what the flat sells for after the loan and costs. There is what the condo asks for upfront and every month. And there is what the same flat would bring in if it were kept and rented out. We ran all three through our position engine at this quarter's medians. Here's what stood out to us.

According to data.gov.sg's HDB resale records, the median 4-room flat in Jurong West went for S$345,888 in 2Q2020, across 71 sales. In 2Q2026, the median is S$530,000, across 145 sales. On the private side, URA Data Service caveats put the median for a 60 to 99 sqm unit in District 22 at S$1,449,000 in 2Q2026, from 28 sales, at a median size of 947 sqft. The illustrative household bought in 2Q2020 with a 75% HDB loan. Six years on, the engine lays out each side of the question using those medians.

The flat's median has moved 53.2% since 2Q2020, and the sale nets about S$303,611

Start with the side that is already owned. The median for a 4-room in Jurong West has moved 53.2% between 2Q2020 and 2Q2026, a change of S$184,112 in median terms. The original 75% HDB loan was S$259,416. After six years of repayments at 2.6%, the balance stands at about S$211,565.

From there, the engine deducts selling costs of S$14,824 for agent and legal fees. There is no seller's stamp duty at six years held. What is left is about S$303,611 in net proceeds.

Two caveats on this. These are medians for the town and flat type, not an indicative mid value for any one unit, and certainly not a valuation. The 2020 figure rests on 71 sales and the 2026 figure on 145, so the mix of storeys, lease and model behind each median is not the same. The table below sets out the full working.

The condo side asks for S$404,810 before the loan, which is more than the flat brings in

Now the purchase. At the 2Q2026 median of S$1,449,000, buyer's stamp duty comes to S$42,560. The maximum loan is S$1,086,750, set at 75% LTV. In this example the LTV limit is what binds, not the income test.

That leaves S$72,450 as minimum cash and S$289,800 in CPF or cash. Add the stamp duty and the engine gets S$404,810 needed before the loan. Against S$303,611 from the sale, that is a shortfall of S$101,199 to find elsewhere.

The table assumes the flat is sold first, so ABSD is S$0 on this line. It also assumes the median unit in that size band is the unit bought. Twenty-eight sales is a thin base for a district median, and a 60 to 99 sqm band covers a fair spread of projects and ages. The figures below are what the medians produce, not a quote on any particular unit.

The monthly instalment moves from about S$1,177 to about S$4,898, a difference of S$3,721

The upfront sum is only half the question. The monthly one moves too. On the flat, the instalment runs at about S$1,177 at the 2.6% HDB rate. On the condo, at 3% over 27 years, it is about S$4,898. That is a difference of S$3,721 a month.

The engine also runs both at a test rate of 4%, which is how the servicing check is applied rather than a view on where rates go. At that rate the flat line reads S$1,326 and the condo line S$5,490.

What the table does not include is the rest of the monthly bill on a private unit: maintenance charges, higher property tax on an owner-occupied private home, and so on. It is the loan instalment alone, on the loan sizes and tenures stated above.

Renting the flat out instead shows a net carry of S$34,024 a year, from only 12 recorded approvals

The third side of the question is not moving at all. Keep the flat, rent it out, and the engine estimates S$3,850 a month. That comes from 12 rental approvals recorded for the town and flat type on data.gov.sg. Twelve rows is a small base, and the spread behind a figure like that can be wide.

On the 2Q2026 median price, that rent works out to a gross yield of 8.7%. After vacancy, non-owner-occupied property tax of S$1,940 a year and maintenance of S$900 a year, net rent a year comes to S$39,525. Take off S$5,501 of interest on the remaining loan and the net carry is S$34,024 a year, or 6.4%.

Note what that 8.7% is measured against: the flat's median price today, not what was paid for it in 2Q2020. The table below shows each line.

Buying before selling, and holding for five years, are the two figures that sit outside the tables

Order matters in these sums. If the condo is bought before the flat is sold, additional buyer's stamp duty applies at 20%, which is S$289,800 under the rules as recorded. Remissions are not modelled here. That figure sits in the condo table as a separate line for a reason: it is a different transaction, not a variation on the same one.

On the holding side, the engine puts five years in the condo at S$262,362 in all. Of that, S$152,877 is interest on the S$1,086,750 loan. For the price to cover that cost over those five years, it would need to rise 18.5%.

One more note on the inputs. The rates behind these figures are versioned, and were checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 18 September 2026. The newest version applied here took effect on 4 July 2025. Each new round of measures changes them again.

A few things the pack cannot answer. It does not know this household's CPF balance, its other commitments, or how long it plans to stay. It prices one flat type in one town and one size band in one district, both at a single quarter's medians. The rental figure rests on 12 approvals. The condo median rests on 28 sales. Thin counts move around from quarter to quarter, so the next set of HDB resale records and URA caveats may shift several of these lines at once. The instalment figures also depend on a rate that is assumed, not fixed, with the 4% test rate shown alongside it.

What the exercise does is put the three sides in the same units, on the same quarter, from recorded transactions. The sale line, the purchase line and the rental line are not versions of the same answer. They measure different things, and they can all be true at once. A single headline figure, whether it is 53.2% or 8.7% or S$101,199, rarely settles anything on its own. It is worth more once you can see where it sits against the rest of the table, and against where the market has been moving.

Method: the flat is a 4-room in the town, bought at the median of Q2 2020 with a 75% HDB loan at 2.6% over 25 years, of which 6 years have been paid. Its value today is Q2 2026's median. Selling costs, seller's stamp duty, equity, the rent estimate and the carry are the position engine's under the rules recorded as in force. The condo is a 60 to 99 sqm resale in the nearest district with enough sales within 2.5 km of the town. It is taken at Q2 2026's median. The buyer is a citizen aged 38 with a household income of S$15,000 a month and no other debt. sale at today's indicative mid value after 5 years. Seller pays 2% commission and S$3,000 legal fees, plus 9% GST. Mortgage interest from a standard amortisation schedule at the given rate. Loan of S$1,086,750 (75% of the price), the maximum available. Property tax on an assumed annual value of S$46,920 (85% of market rent). Maintenance at the configured norm. Rates are versioned data in config/rules.yaml, checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 2026-09-18. The newest version applied here took effect 2025-07-04. Rules change with each cooling-measure round. Private figures are from URA Data Service caveats, HDB figures from data.gov.sg resale records, both loaded weekly by this site's ingest. Medians are of the non-excluded transactions in the period named. Sales flagged by the hygiene rules (related-party transfers, bulk deals, outliers) are left out. Every figure is indicative and drawn from recorded transactions, not a formal valuation.