Selling A Bukit Merah 4-Room At S$938,000 To Buy In District 3 — The Entry Cost Still Lands S$25,348 Short

This is an illustrative example on the quarter's median prices and a stated household, not a real family and not advice on whether to sell, buy, keep or rent out. It lays out the figures the position engine computes for each side of the question; the decision is the reader's.

An upgrade question usually gets answered with one number: what the flat fetches now. That number is only one side of three. We ran this one through our position engine and laid out each side on its own. The household is illustrative: a couple aged 38, with S$15,000 a month between them. They bought a 4-room in Bukit Merah in 2Q2020 with a 75% HDB loan. They are now looking at a 60 to 99 sqm private unit in District 3. Here is what stood out to us. The sale is a large one in dollar terms. The sum asked on the other side is larger still, before any loan is drawn.

According to data.gov.sg HDB resale records, the 4-room median in Bukit Merah was S$938,000 in 2Q2026, across 101 sales. The same median in 2Q2020 was S$688,888, across 25 sales. From URA Data Service caveats, the median for a 60 to 99 sqm private unit in District 3 was S$1,828,888 in 2Q2026, across 69 sales. The median size behind that figure is 807 sqft. Rents come from data.gov.sg rental approvals. Every price here is an indicative median from recorded transactions. None of it is a valuation of any particular home. The stamp duty, loan and holding figures are computed by our engine on the rules as recorded.

The flat's median has moved 36.2% since 2Q2020, and that sets the size of the sale

Start with the side that is already owned. The Bukit Merah 4-room median has moved from S$688,888 to S$938,000 over the six years. That is a change of S$249,112, or 36.2%. The 2020 base rests on 25 sales in the quarter. That is a thin count, and medians on thin counts move with whatever mix happened to transact. So read the gain as the movement in the town median, not as the movement of one specific flat.

The loan side is more mechanical. A 75% HDB loan on the 2020 median comes to S$516,666. After six years of repayment at 2.6%, the balance stands at about S$421,364. Selling costs for agent and legal work come to about S$23,718. Seller's stamp duty is S$0 at this holding period. What is left after the balance and the costs is about S$492,918. The table below sets out each line in order.

One thing the table does not carry is the flat's own holding cost over those six years. It shows the position at the point of sale, not the running cost of getting there.

What the condo asks for before the loan lands above what the flat sale nets

Now the purchase side. At the 2Q2026 median of S$1,828,888, buyer's stamp duty is S$61,044. The maximum loan is S$1,371,666, set by the 75% loan-to-value limit. That limit is the binding constraint in this case, not the income test. Minimum cash is S$91,444. The rest of the equity, S$365,778, can come from CPF or cash. Added together, the sum needed before the loan is S$518,266. Against net proceeds of S$492,918, the engine shows a shortfall of S$25,348 to find elsewhere.

Sequence matters in this table too. If the condo is bought before the flat is sold, additional buyer's stamp duty applies at 20%, or S$365,777, under the rules as recorded. Bought after the sale, the line is S$0. Remissions are not modelled here, so the before-selling figure is the gross amount. The table below shows both lines side by side.

The monthly instalment is the line that moves furthest

The entry cost is a one-off. The instalment is not. On the flat, the monthly payment runs at about S$2,344. On the condo loan of S$1,371,666 at 3% over 27 years, it runs at about S$6,182. The difference is S$3,838 a month. Tenure is capped here by age and by the loan rules, so the 27 years is not a free choice.

The second row of the table below is run at a 4% test rate. It is a stress line applied to the same loan, nothing more. At that rate the flat instalment is S$2,641 and the condo instalment is S$6,930. Both numbers assume the full loan is drawn and the schedule runs to term.

Renting the flat out instead leaves a net carry of S$33,662 a year

The third side keeps the flat and puts it on the rental market. The estimate is S$4,335 a month, drawn from 48 recorded approvals in data.gov.sg rental records. On the 2Q2026 median price, that works out to a gross yield of 5.5%. Forty-eight rows is a usable sample for a town, but it covers a range of flats and lease terms. Treat the monthly figure as a central estimate, not a quoted rent.

From there the engine works down. Property tax at the non-owner-occupied rate comes to S$2,185 a year. Maintenance is S$900 a year. After vacancy, tax and maintenance, net rent is S$44,618 a year. Interest on the remaining loan takes S$10,955. What is left is a net carry of S$33,662 a year, or 3.6%. The table below sets out the full line. Note that the loan principal keeps being repaid in this case, which the carry figure does not capture.

Holding the condo for five years carries a bill of its own

One more figure sits behind the purchase side. Holding the District 3 unit for five years costs S$326,853 in all, by the engine's count. S$192,958 of that is interest on the loan. The rest covers the selling costs at the end, maintenance and property tax. For the price to cover that bill, it would need to rise 18.3% over the five years. That is a break-even measure, not a statement about where prices go.

The assumptions behind it are worth naming. The exit is priced at today's indicative mid value after five years. The seller pays 2% commission and S$3,000 in legal fees, plus 9% GST. Interest follows a standard amortisation schedule at 3% on the full S$1,371,666. Property tax is computed on an assumed annual value of S$49,470. Change any of those and the break-even figure changes with it.

Several things stay open. The 2Q2020 flat median rests on 25 sales, so the 36.2% movement carries the mix of a thin quarter. The District 3 median covers 69 sales across a 60 to 99 sqm band, and a 807 sqft median sits inside a range of sizes and projects. The rental estimate rests on 48 approvals. The stamp duty, LTV and property tax rules used here are versioned, and were checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 2026-09-18. The newest version applied took effect 2025-07-04. Rules change when measures change, so the next quarter's run may use different ones. The figures to watch in 3Q2026 are the same three: the Bukit Merah 4-room median, the District 3 median in that size band, and the rental approvals count.

We keep returning to the same point on these runs. A single headline number rarely settles anything on its own. The flat median tells you about the sale. It says nothing about the entry cost on the other side, or the monthly line, or what the flat earns if it stays. The value is in seeing the three sides in the same period, on the same rules. Where that leaves any particular household is not something the data decides.

Method: the flat is a 4-room in the town, bought at the median of Q2 2020 with a 75% HDB loan at 2.6% over 25 years, of which 6 years have been paid. Its value today is Q2 2026's median. Selling costs, seller's stamp duty, equity, the rent estimate and the carry are the position engine's under the rules recorded as in force. The condo is a 60 to 99 sqm resale in the nearest district with enough sales within 2.5 km of the town. It is taken at Q2 2026's median. The buyer is a citizen aged 38 with a household income of S$15,000 a month and no other debt. sale at today's indicative mid value after 5 years. Seller pays 2% commission and S$3,000 legal fees, plus 9% GST. Mortgage interest from a standard amortisation schedule at the given rate. Loan of S$1,371,666 (75% of the price), the maximum available. Property tax on an assumed annual value of S$49,470 (85% of market rent). Maintenance at the configured norm. Rates are versioned data in config/rules.yaml, checked against IRAS and MAS publications on 2026-09-18. The newest version applied here took effect 2025-07-04. Rules change with each cooling-measure round. Private figures are from URA Data Service caveats, HDB figures from data.gov.sg resale records, both loaded weekly by this site's ingest. Medians are of the non-excluded transactions in the period named. Sales flagged by the hygiene rules (related-party transfers, bulk deals, outliers) are left out. Every figure is indicative and drawn from recorded transactions, not a formal valuation.