Lease decay in 99-year private homes, Q2 2026: 30.6% less at 60 years left

The table and chart below set out the measured lease curve for 99-year private homes as at Q2 2026. Ten remaining-lease bands are compared against the longest band, which is set at 1.0. On that basis a lease with 60 to 65 years left trades at 0.693 of one with 90 or more years, a discount of 30.6%, drawn from 140 paired cells. The pairing is done within one district, so differences in location are held aside from the lease effect.

The upper part of the curve falls gently. The 85 to 89 band sits at 0.914, a discount of 0.0859 against the reference band, from 424 paired cells. The 80 to 84 band, the deepest in the sample at 743 cells, comes in at 0.849, and the 75 to 79 band at 0.78 from 714 cells. Between the top of the curve and the seventy-five-year mark, each five-year step costs a few percentage points of relative price.

Below that the steps become larger and the samples thinner. The 70 to 74 band reads 0.738 from 641 cells and the 65 to 69 band 0.723 from 474 cells. Under sixty years the counts drop sharply: 56 cells at 0.653 for the 55 to 59 band, 46 cells at 0.61 for 50 to 54, and 30 cells at 0.58 for 45 to 49, where the measured discount is 0.4204. Bands built on fewer pairs carry more measurement noise.

Most-traded 99-year private homes with under 60 years left

The table below lists the ten 99-year private developments with under sixty years of lease left that recorded the most resale transactions over the past twelve months. Mandarin Gardens leads with 41 sales at 55 years remaining, ahead of Braddell View with 25 sales at 52 years and Neptune Court with 21 sales at 49 years. Bayshore Park follows with 19 sales, also at 55 years remaining. These are large, long-established estates where turnover is high enough to produce a stable median.

The remainder of the list runs from Hillcrest Arcadia, with 14 sales at 48 years left, and Lakepoint Condominium, with 13 sales at 56 years, through Laguna Park at 12 sales and 50 years, Lakeview Estate and The Hillford at 11 sales each with 50 and 47 years remaining, and Pine Grove with 10 sales at 57 years. The median price per area shown for each project is unadjusted: it is the recorded middle of those sales, with no lease factor applied and no control for unit size or location.

Taken together, the figures describe a curve measured from paired transactions rather than from any formula. Relative price holds close to the reference level through the eighties, then declines more steeply as the remaining term shortens, reaching 0.693 in the 60 to 65 band and 0.58 at the shortest band measured. The curve is re-estimated every week from sales in the same town or district across different lease bands, and it records what the market has paid. It is indicative, not a valuation of any individual home.

The curve is re-measured every week from pairs of sales in the same town or district and different lease bands, so location cannot pass as lease decay. It describes what the market has paid, not what any home is worth; the site's valuation applies it only when a user turns the lease method on.