Lease decay in HDB flats, Q2 2026: 29.4% less at 60 years left

The lease curve for Q2 2026 is measured across 13 remaining-lease bands on HDB resale flats, all read against flats with 95 or more years left on the 99-year lease, which are set at a factor of 1.0. At 60 to 65 years remaining the measured factor is 0.706, a discount of 29.4% against the longest band, and that reading rests on 643 paired cells, the largest count of any band in the table below.

The pairs are formed from sales in the same town and different remaining-lease bands, so a flat in one town is only ever compared with another flat in that same town. That construction is what keeps location from being counted as lease decay: a central town with short leases is not measured against an outlying town with long ones. The figures are indicative and come from recorded resale transactions, not from any formal valuation of a particular flat.

The chart above and the table below trace the shape. The step down is gentle at the top, with factors of 0.966, 0.917 and 0.861 in the 90 to 94, 85 to 89 and 80 to 84 bands, then 0.805 at 75 to 79 and 0.76 at 70 to 74. Below that the factors fall through 0.729, 0.681 and 0.65, reaching 0.617 at 45 to 49 years, 0.582 at 40 to 44 and 0.542 at 35 to 39 years left. Cell counts thin at both ends, at 32 in the shortest band and 260 in the longest.

Most-traded HDB flats with under 60 years left

The table below lists the ten HDB addresses with under 60 years of lease left that recorded the most resale transactions over the last twelve months. Bedok Reservoir Rd is first with 173 sales at 57.3 years remaining, followed by Ang Mo Kio Ave 10 with 166 sales at 52.7 years and Ang Mo Kio Ave 3 with 137 sales at 51.2 years. Yishun Ring Rd, at 58.2 years, has the longest remaining lease on the list; Circuit Rd, at 42.2 years, has the shortest.

Four of the ten addresses sit in the 50 to 54 year band, including Bedok Nth St 3 at 52.8 years with 105 sales, Marsiling Dr at 50.5 years with 104 sales and Bedok Nth Rd at 51.2 years with 101 sales. Ang Mo Kio Ave 4, at 54.0 years, records 96 sales, and Tampines St 21, at 57.4 years, records 113. The median price per square metre shown alongside each address is unadjusted: it is the raw median of those sales, with no lease factor applied to it.

Taken together, the figures describe a curve that flattens near the top of the lease range and steepens as the remaining term shortens, measured entirely from paired resale prices within the same town. The 60 to 65 year band, where the discount reads 29.4%, also carries the heaviest evidence base of the 13 bands. The curve is re-measured weekly and states what buyers and sellers have transacted at, not what any individual flat is worth; the medians in the second table stand on their own, without the lease factors applied.

The curve is re-measured every week from pairs of sales in the same town or district and different lease bands, so location cannot pass as lease decay. It describes what the market has paid, not what any home is worth; the site's valuation applies it only when a user turns the lease method on.